The legacy left to us by Canadian singer-prophet Leonard Cohen ends with the dark line:
“Oh, and one more thing – you won’t like what comes after America.”

As the world marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe, it is becoming increasingly clear that the remarkably durable US-led international order is fading. Now the world is desperately trying to figure out what will replace it. A new multipolar order? Spheres of influence? A global version of the 19th-century Vienna Concert of Powers? But the most likely scenario is a long and dangerous period of global disorder .

There was, of course, no “golden age” of a universal liberal international order. But across vast regions—Europe, Asia, Oceania—there was indeed a security and economic order led by what Princeton professor John Ikenberry called the postwar United States, a “liberal leviathan.” This order reached its apogee in the early 21st century but has since been in gradual decline, partly because of the “rise of the rest” of the powers, itself made possible by American globalization, and partly because of self-destructive displays of American arrogance.

Today, Donald Trump is destroying everything that remained of the old order with incredible speed and recklessness. Even if we assume the unlikely possibility that American democracy will emerge from the four-year storm of the “Trumpist revolution” unscathed, in relations between the United States and its allies, in the words of Robert Browning, “there will be no more joyful and confident morning . ”

With three, perhaps even four, major wars raging around the world (Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and the standoff between India and Pakistan over Kashmir), and trade-stopping triple-digit tariffs between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China, is a clear sign that we have entered a dangerous era of chaos ?

Some still hope that this period will end relatively quickly, either with a miraculous restoration of the old order or the birth of a new one. Well, let’s hope so. But there are a number of reasons to doubt it.

Even if a rising superpower (China) and a declining one (the US) manage to avoid the “Thucydides Trap” and start an open war, periods of global leadership transition almost inevitably bring heightened international tensions. The leaders of China and Russia just met in Moscow – symbolically timing the meeting to coincide with the anniversary of the end of the war in Europe – to reaffirm their partnership against the West . Xi Jinping identified the “arrogant fascist forces” defeated in 1945 with today’s forces of “unilateralism, hegemony and bullying.” (Guess who he had in mind?) Meanwhile, Russia has gone on a war footing, and Vladimir Putin is seeking to rebuild as much of his lost empire as possible. Narendra Modi’s nationalist India is hell-bent on feuding with China-backed Pakistan.

Against this backdrop of great power rivalry, middle powers – Turkey, Brazil, South Africa – operate. And it is noteworthy that they often see opportunities in chaos : they can support one superpower on one issue, another on another, all the while advancing their own interests. Small states, like those in the Middle East, skillfully navigate between the “crocodiles,” like the Egyptian cleaner bird, which profits from cleaning the teeth of predators.

For 80 years after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the taboo on the use of nuclear weapons remained. But today the world watches as nuclear-armed Russia wages a full-scale war against Ukraine, a country that voluntarily gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 in exchange for security guarantees from the US, Britain and (dark comedy) Russia. The barrier against nuclear proliferation looks increasingly fragile.

In South Korea, the possibility of creating its own nuclear weapons is being seriously discussed, especially against the backdrop of growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. In the Middle East, where they are balancing between nuclear Israel and quasi-nuclear Iran , this topic is also relevant. In Europe, the opinion is beginning to form that it would be a good idea to have its own nuclear cover .

At the same time, the technological revolution continues, giving rise to new forms of geopolitical rivalry – for control over data, software, communications networks. Artificial intelligence is a particularly dangerous area, where a new arms race is possible, even more unpredictable than the nuclear one during the Cold War. If China can surprise the US with DeepSeek, why can’t it also develop a secret DeepStrike ?

Growing populations and climate change will only intensify competition for resources and trigger new waves of mass migration .

Yes, there are counterweights . China has an interest in preserving the open global trading system from which it has benefited most. Even the most cynical middle powers understand that chaos must not degenerate into total collapse. In Canada, Australia, Europe, there is a noticeable liberal pushback . The new Pope, Leo XIV, promises to build bridges on a suffering planet .

History is never predetermined. But for those who believe in the ideal of a liberal international order , however unattainable , it is worth acknowledging that Cohen was probably right . We should not just hope for, but prepare for, a protracted period of global disorder .